Tennessee Braces for a Potentially Severe 2022-2023 Flu Season

Tennessee Flu Numbers On the Rise This Season

Tennessee is one of several states experiencing an early and significant start to this year's flu season. Key indicators show influenza activity in the Volunteer State is high and expected to increase in the coming months.

A Look at Current Flu Levels in Tennessee

Data reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show Tennessee's flu season is off to a robust start. As of late October 2022, the state's overall flu level is ranked as "high" by CDC standards.

This determination comes from several influenza tracking metrics:

• Outpatient health visits for influenza-like illnesses are above average for this time of year.
• Flu hospitalizations are rising faster than previous seasons.
• Geographic spread of influenza viruses has been confirmed as widespread throughout the state.

Additional surveillance indicates both Type A and Type B strains are currently circulating in Tennessee. The predominant virus identified so far is Type A H3N2.

Comparisons to Previous Tennessee Flu Seasons

How do current influenza levels in Tennessee stack up against flu stats from recent years?

• The 2022-2023 flu season rose to a high level of activity nearly a full month sooner than any season since 2009-2010.
• Cases detected in October 2022 are already approaching the statewide peak numbers recorded for entire seasons as recently as 2015-2016 and 2019-2020.
• Flu hospitalization rates among young Tennesseeans under age 4 are nearly triple the pace documented over the same six week period during 2021-2022 season.

State health officials caution it's still early, but all signs are pointing to an accelerated start with elevated flu numbers expected in Tennessee this fall and winter.

CDC Tracking of Influenza Levels

How exactly does the CDC gather the data used to determine Tennessee's current flu activity rankings? The agency relies on a comprehensive tracking network.

Outpatient Illness Surveillance

One of the best indicators of influenza activity comes from outpatient facilities like doctor's offices and urgent care clinics. Over 100 Tennessee providers participate in CDC's Sentinel Platform, reporting weekly on:

• Total patient visits per week
• Percentage diagnosed with flu-like illnesses
• Number of respiratory specimen samples collected and tested for influenza

If the percentage of visits related to influenza-like symptoms rises significantly above region-specific baselines, it signals viruses are actively circulating in that area.

Virologic Surveillance

Detecting influenza viruses themselves confirms transmission activity. Public health labs across Tennessee routinely submit random respiratory samples to CDC for analysis to spot circulating strains.

This virologic data combined with clinical indicators provides a clear local picture of the influenza season as it progresses.

Mortality Reporting

Tennessee's vital statistics offices track both seasonal flu deaths and pediatric mortalities associated with lab-confirmed influenza infections. Though these represent only a fraction of total lives lost to flu annually, increases can reveal problematic trends.

What's Driving Worsening Flu Seasons

Influenza has always been notoriously unpredictable, with wide variability year to year. Scientists point to some factors possibly influencing recent troubling patterns.

Pandemic Impact on Immunity Gaps

Widespread social distancing, school closures, mask mandates and reduced travel during the COVID-19 pandemic meant the past two flu seasons were exceptionally mild.

However, missing nearly all community exposure to seasonal influenza viruses created significant "immunity gaps". Much larger portions of the population now lack antibodies to fend off infection.

Most experts agree this winter many people will likely experience flu illness for the very first time.

Children at High Risk

Children born since the 2019-2020 season have never encountered seasonal influenza strains circulating earlier in their lives. Pediatric hospitalization rates for flu may worsen.

Officials emphasize the urgency of vaccination to protect vulnerable, immunologically naïve children against severe influenza disease this year.

Impact of Lifting COVID Precautions

Pandemic capacity limits, gathering size restrictions, remote learning and face mask mandates also helped curb flu transmission for two seasons. Now most locations have ended such precautions.

CDC notes that increased social mixing, crowded planes, concerts and sporting events could accelerate influenza spread beyond typical seasonal levels.

Could Tennessee Flu Cases Break Records?

Just how bad might the 2022-2023 flu season ultimately get in Tennessee? Public health authorities are concerned numbers could rival records set recently.

Comparison to 2017-2018 Stats

The worst influenza season of the past decade was 2017-2018 - and Tennessee got hit harder than most states. Key markers included:

• Nearly 6,000 flu-related hospitalizations
• Over 2,600 confirmed ICU admissions for influenza
• 276 reported pediatric deaths attributed to the flu

State health leaders indicate flu activity is currently tracking closely with that historically severe season. They strongly recommend vaccination and other preventive steps to avoid this crisis point again.

Pandemic Preparedness Improvements

However, officials also note Tennessee healthcare capacity is better equipped to handle an influx of flu patients due to investments after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

Upgraded medical surge readiness could help mitigate some of flu season's gravest consequences expected this winter.

Reduce Your Flu Risk this Season

Tennesseans shouldn't panic, but should take CDC flu forecasts seriously by protecting themselves using proven health strategies.

Get Your Annual Flu Shot

Medical experts universally endorse the influenza vaccine as the best way to avoid contracting the seasonal flu and spreading it to others.

• CDC recommends it for everyone over 6 months old with rare exceptions.
• Ideal timing is early October before peak activity hits.
• Flu shots are updated annually to target strains experts predict will circulate most.
• Vaccination not only prevents illness but also reduces severity for breakthrough infections.

Practice Preventive Habits

Simple healthy daily habits also minimize flu transmission risks:

• Wash hands frequently with soap for at least 20 seconds.
• Use alcohol-based hand sanitizer when soap isn't available.
• Cough/sneeze into sleeve rather than hands to contain germs.
• Disinfect high-touch surfaces like doorknobs, light switches, keyboards etc.
• Avoid touching your face, eyes, nose or mouth with unwashed hands.
• Stay home when sick for at least 24 hours after a fever.

Following public health guidance, getting an annual flu shot, and maintaining good hygiene practices will help Tennesseans stay healthy this winter.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice. Always consult with a healthcare professional before starting any new treatment regimen.